Is Amazon Acquiring Netflix?

As part of my 2009 Digital Media Predictions, I gave six reasons why Amazon should acquire Netflix (and also merge with eBay):

So why does Amazon + Netflix make sense? A few reasons:

1. In economic hardship or not, Netflix offers an alternative to movie purchasing… which I believe, over time, is eroding (just like music). Offering consumers the ability to either purchase a movie at a flat rate (ie $14.99) or renting it within a monthly subscription (ie $14.99) provides choice while still keeping buyers on Amazon.

2. I love Netflix’s service… but I despise Netflix.com and the site experience which, as I’ve written before, hasn’t changed for years. Amazon would immediately fix this by leveraging their best-in-class search and site experience – and integrating that into the core Amazon platform.

Continue reading for all six reason

According to TechCrunch, it looks as though Amazon may indeed be courting Netflix:

Well here’s a hot little rumor. Netflix stock has surged today on news that it may be acquired by Amazon.

The stock is currently up over 7% in trading today, at an 11-week high. Sources seem pretty thin, based seemingly on stock analysis from places like WhatsTrading.com. And neither company is commenting. But the idea is a hot one.

Update: Bloomberg is also covering: "Netflix Advances on Speculation of Buyout Offer From Amazon.com"

The Real-Time Web, Authority Filtering & CrunchUp Themes

Yesterday TechCrunch put on the "Real-Time CrunchUp" event to discuss what has been billed as the real-time web. Alongside several product demos and company launches, the most prominent discussion topics were: - Business models and opportunities (Ron Conway provided his ten ideas)

- Businesses vs. Features: are these products able to sustain themselves as companies or are they features within larger companies

- Is the real-time web just beginning or is the lifecycle relatively advanced? And what does this mean for Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and other big company's abilities to compete?

- Twitter vs. Facebook vs. Friendfeed and what each mean for openness, competition, user experience and, ultimately, the consumer

- Noise. A theme I have written much about: the real-time web is overwhelming. How do we filter the noise to arrive at what is most important and relevant. And does filtering mean that the web is no-longer real time? The last theme (noise) is most important to me because, as the real-time web becomes more popular (and it will), it becomes increasingly difficult to digest and decipher. This is where Facebook will have a major advantage (using the social graph and 'like' / commenting systems). It is also where Friendfeed has already done a great job by using activity, relevancy, social connections, etc to deliver the news that it considers most important:

Other companies that are well-positioned here (and that I have covered; click for coverage): - Tweetmeme - Bitly - Aardvark

And proof that filtering is especially critical for Twitter - even if, as many of the CrunchUp panelists argued, it delays the immediacy of the real-time web: beside the live-stream of the CrunchUp final panel was a Twitter widget displaying 'relevant' tweets (defined by hashtags). Spammers quickly and repeated followed. I added the below screenshot and blocked out the very graphic user icon:

Aardvark, Facebook Connect & 'Social Finding'

Note: this is the third post of a four-post series on how Facebook Connect in changing digital media and online marketing. See the others here If you haven't tried Aardvark yet, register and give it a spin... it's unique, useful and delivers surprisingly high-quality answers to your questions. The concept is rather simple (while the technology is clearly complex): users ask questions to their social graph (across web, chat, Facebook and Twitter integrations) - Aardvark then fields answers from those users most likely to deliver the best results (in other words: Aardvark is determining authority and relevancy to the noise that often exists in social contexts). Aardvark is also a terrific example of how Facebook Connect can be used to solve two major, common issues that I have written about before:

1. Arriving in an empty party: MySpace had Tom... but there is nothing less engaging than arriving to a service / party alone and without connections.

2. Finding: Ever tried to browse Apple's App Store, eBay or any other site with decent inventory? It's difficult and, at times, impossible.

Facebook Connect can solve both and Aardvark is a perfect demonstration. First, they use Facebook Connect to allow users to find friends from their Facebook social graph who are also Aardvark users - this is powerful for new users and for viral marketing (invitations are also powered by Facebook Connect). Once you are connected through Facebook, Aardvark can determine social connections (relationships, proximity, etc) and begin to assign authority rankings based on content, relationships, and so forth. Through the integration, Aardvark has:

- improved viral marketing through an invitation program - increased engagement through social recommendations - improved efficiency and relevancy of finding content, people, etc - improved their internal algorithms (which are core to the social and authority rankings)

Also worth looking at: CitySearch has done a similar integration which achieves much of the same.

Watching Michael Jackson's Memorial Service with CNN Live

Earlier today, I wrote about how Facebook Connect is being used by CNN during their televised and online broadcasts of the Michael Jackson memorial service. CNN Live's online coverage has officially kicked off and so to has the Facebook Connect integration / chat widget. Not as well done or interactive as the Youtube / Green Eyed World implementation (namely because CNN isn't filtering the Facebook discussion!). Also worth noting: if you watch the broadcast, they mention Facebook every few minutes and encourage people to interact via the CNN Live / Facebook integration. It is clearly a focus.

Here is a screenshot:

Facebook Connect: Making Mobile Gaming Social

Note: this is the second post of a four-post series on how Facebook Connect in changing digital media and online marketing. See the others here

Playfish's 'Who Has the Biggest Brain' is a wide popular Facebook Application and iPhone game. While not new, it is a terrific example of how Facebook Connect can be integrated into gaming environments to make the game more social, sticky and engaging. The game itself is very well done (challenging, fun, smart) but I am even more impressed by the role that Facebook Connect Plays:

- Through the iPhone App, users can connect their Facebook social graph through the mobile Facebook Connect integration

- Once connected, users are notified of where their score sits within their social graph, instantly encouraging competitiveness. When you pass a friend's high score, the screen animates as you move up the 'podium' - its terrificly clever and yet a simple way to bring relationships to an otherwise one-dimensional game

- Users can share their high scores via the Facebook feed or notifications - and, similarly, users are notified when their scores are surpassed

While Playfish's Facebook Connect integration is not unique, it is a great example (SGN, Zynga and others have also done it well). These are all mobile gaming integrations... but it begs the question: why can't this work on traditional gaming platforms like Xbox Live or the Playstation Network? These are more robust, interesting opportunities that already have web interfaces and thrive on social interactions.

Facebook Connect, Michael Jackson's Memorial and CNN Live

Today's elaborate memorial for Michael Jackson at the Staples Center is expected to be viewed by one-billion people across the world. One major component of that viewing will be Facebook - both via Facebook.com and through Facebook Connect.

In starting a short series on this blog about ways that Facebook Connect is changing digital media and online marketing - we get a powerful glimpse of how Facebook and Facebook Connect are transforming media viewing. CNN's coverage of the Michael Jackson memorial is a prime example:

CNN has been promoting the event for days and throughout the morning. Facebook is a core element of their television and internet coverage.... and it makes total sense:

- CNN Live allows users to RSVP to the Michael Jackson Memorial, which is then shared through the Facebook feed. This allows CNN and fans to tap into the power of Facebook's graph and the resonance of Michael Jackson's name (the MJ fan page is now the largest Facebook Page with nearly seven millions fans)

- During the memorial, the conversation about the event and CNN's coverage allow are more targeted (across my Facebook social graph) and flows in two directions (to and from Facebook)... this is a more relevant, engaging experience for users and great viral marketing for CNN

- Finally, if you believe that conversation is the core underlying of how and where the social web is moving (and I firmly believe this), Facebook Connect can be the enabling force... changing CNN from a one-directional news broadcast to a multi-directional conversation relevant to the people, media and content surrounding it.

Michael Jackson Drives Perez Hilton to Record 2m Uniques in Day

Michael Jackson's death was remarkable in several ways - one of which was what it signified for news delivery and discovery. Like millions of others, I first found out through Facebook, Twitter, text messages... all of which led me to TMZ and Perez Hilton. The first major news source to break Jackson's death was the LA Times - and it is important to note that it was done first through their blog and not the homepage. Of course, that was discovered and then shared instantly via Twitter.

Hitwise today notes that TMZ experienced record traffic - catapulting into the 60th most trafficked website (and struggling to support the overwhelming growth).

But you can also look at Perez Hilton to give perspective on the traffic growth. PerezHilton.com is measured by Quantacst and we can therefore get a public, accurate representation of his traffic. Two million uniques visited PerezHilton.com on June 26th - a huge leap from the previous high of 1.6m. Those 2m visitors delivered 15.3m total page views for the day - which was his third biggest total but short of the April 22nd record of 17.7m.

To put this in perspective, we can compare it to Huffington Post's traffic for June 26th (also measured by Quantcast). Measured by uniques, HuffingtonPost is a far larger site: 19.5m monthly uniques vs. 13.1m. By pagviews, PerezHilton is far larger: ~300m monthly views vs. ~220m. But Perez dominated by any measurement and, regardless of the 'winner', these are huge numbers for nontraditional media sources and proof that 'breaking' news is being delivered - and read! - in nontraditional places.

PerezHilton.com: 15.3m pageviews and 2m uniques HuffingtonPost.com: 9m pageviews and 1.7m uniques

"Welcome to your iPhone 3GS" Email. Two Weeks Later.

Yet another awful, poorly timed email from Apple. At this point, I should start a weekly post about email campaigns from Apple...

Today's email says: "Thanks for purchasing iPhone 3GS. Welcome to your iPhone 3GS: We can't wait to show you around."

That is very kind of Apple - but it would have been far more useful when I actually bought the iPhone... rather than two weeks later. The well-edited tutorials / videos would have also been useful at that point, but I am afraid that learning how to place calls and using the keyboard are no longer helpful (and if they were - it would be a terrible reflection on me and the phone).

Google Buying, Muscling Market Share for AdSense for Mobile?

"One app. Lots of stuff."

That's Google's tagline for their Google Mobile application... but it really should be: "One app. Lots of promotion." If you have been to any tech blog over the past two weeks, you have certainly seen Google advertising for their mobile app - which is an excellent product. But the frequency with which the ads are running - and their appearance in typically high value rotations (sometimes two or three per page) is, at the very least, revealing of how important Google considers its mobile strategy.

Whether or not Android becomes a (or the) dominant mobile player - Google stands to monetize traffic from iPhones, Blackberries, etc. And it is important to realize that Google's advertising flurry coincides with their AdSense for Mobile launch... so in effect the ad campaign has two audiences and benefits: Driving Mobile Adoption - reach consumers and drive Google Mobile downloads - which result in more frequent Google search usage on handsets - which results in better penetration of Mobile Ads... monetized of course by Google

Reach Publishers and Developers - Prominently targeting tech pubs - repeatedly - reaching publishers and developers - who are reminded (repeatedly) of Google's efforts in Mobile - and thus encouraged to either integrate or develop alongside

When competing with Google - one of the biggest concerns is always their ability to leverage the network (in a way comparable to most others' house ads) to drive brand awareness and buy market share.