Ahh... I missed Twitter.
And while Twitter wasn't cooperating with Gtalk for the last couple weeks, I found myself not using the site or service. But today, at 1:42pm pst, I got my first Twitter message over Gtalk and I knew it had to either be Calacanis or Scoble.... Jason won:
I love Amazon. I buy everything there - from toothpaste to food to electronics. They make buying easy. Amazon's finding experience and cross-merchandising technology is so superior to the competition that they are mentioned in nearly every e-commerce discussion I've been a part of.
But last night I received something so bizarre that it made me wonder if Amazon's merchandising talents haven't yet made their way off-line.
I purchased 120 'Doggie Waste Bags' using my Amazon Prime account. The package arrived within 24 hours with a gift: an individual box of Kellogg's Smart Start Healthy Heart Cinnamon Raisin Cereal. Huh?! Cross-promoting cereal with pet poop bags is a strange, strange combination.... even if it's loaded with fiber.
2008 has already seen a flurry of massive deals on the web and the hardwood basketball courts. So which has had the more eventful and impactful month? Let's compare:
LA Lakers Acquire Paul Gasol Microsoft Acquires Danger
The Lakers have had a terrific 2007-2008 NBA season, but with Andrew Bynum's recent injury, lacked front-court muscle... so they made one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history: exchanging Kwame Brown and some other throw-ins for Paul Gasol. The Spurs were so upset (and scared) by the trade, that they cried foul to the league and the press (think Google's reaction to Microsoft / Yahoo). The Lakers improved themselves so drastically and so unexpectedly, that the West's top two teams reacted with their own blockbuster trades.
Microsoft has Apple-envy. Their mp3 and mobile efforts haven't been nearly as successful as the crew in Cupertino... and while the iPhone has already moved ahead of Windows Mobile, MS realizes that they have to improve their web presence if they are to win the mobile battle. Meanwhile, Yahoo is launching new mobile products and Google has their own vaunted mobile strategy launching shortly. Danger is the oft-forgotten design company that created the very-slick Sidekick - and if MS is to play with the big boys, Danger could be the right player.
Winner: I love the Microsoft acquisition, but the Lakers got away with the most lopsided trade in NBA history... Not only is Gasol is terrific, but he came at no cost.
Phoenix Suns Acquire Shaq Microsoft Offers to Acquire Yahoo
Less than a week after their bitter rival acquired Gasol, the Suns made one of the NBA's largest and most surprising trades: swapping All Star Shawn Marion (and Marcus Banks) for Shaq. Shaq is one of the all-time NBA greats (he has four championship rings), but is on the decline (see Yahoo). Meanwhile, Phoenix is rolling with the West's second best record, but needed to rid themselves of Shawn Marion (selfish and egotistical) while adding a force down-low (Shaq). The Suns have been criticized for such a drastic move (see Microsoft) - but they realized that playoff basketball is far more physical and they believe that, with the right team, Shaq still has plenty of gas left (see Yahoo).
Microsoft is the perennial power who can't seem to win on the web (MS:Phoenix as Google:San Antonio)... so they took a gamble on an aging brand that, despite it's recent decline, is still one of the web's top destinations. It's a massive gamble - MS is effectively saying that, while neither they nor Yahoo can compete with Google directly, they are a worthy competitor if combined. Google clearly is scared (see Dallas Mavericks) and rushed to issue a public statement and woo Yahoo's search business.
Winner: Both moves have been remarkably criticized... but at the end of the day, Shaq's $20mm/yr salary comes off Phoenix's book in two years. If a MS / Yahoo merger is a disaster, that likely won't come off the books for ages.
Dallas Mavericks Move to Acquire Jason Kidd Google Rumored to Acquire Bebo
The Dallas Mavericks and New Jersey Nets agreed in principle to trade aging superstar Jason Kidd for budding star Jason Terry (and several salary dumps). The move was clearly reactionary (and perhaps rash) as their competition got much better in the matter of a few days. The Mavericks traded the future for the present - a risky proposition for web tycoon Mark Cuban. Meanwhile, the Nets did well in the trade as it affords them the ability to completely rehaul their team by dumping salaries and effectively buying future flexibility. **The trade is being held up because Devean George has refused to play in New Jersey
Google is rumored to be acquiring social network Bebo for $1B. If the Mavericks moved to acquire their own superstar as a response to moves by LA and Phoenix, Google supposed acquisition of Bebo would be a response to the massive success of Facebook (who has a deal with Microsoft) and the still-growing-strong MySpace (owned by NewsCorp). Google has Orkut - but Bebo is larger, sexier, and recently opened their own platform (which I love by the way).
Winner: Neither deal is complete, but I am not sold that Jason Kidd is a fit with the Mavericks. Meanwhile, Google has struggled to monetize MySpace and is releasing their Open Social platform... owning Bebo would enable them to improve monetization on social-networks and give Open Social a huge launching pad.
What I'm Loving: FriendFeed: Brilliantly simple and effective.
Bebo: started using it for Widgetbox purposes, but I have been very impressed by the quality of the site and their new open platform (which I actually prefer to Facebook's). I actually think that Bebo takes the best of Facebook and the best of MySpace - not too clean and not too dirt. Also - rumors just broke that Bebo was acquired for $1b)
iTunes Podcasts: Can't stand the interface (and I'll continue to complain to my Apple friends until it's updated)... but I am addicted to podcasts and rarely listen to music these days.
Notepad and WordPad: I find myself doing my writing and note-taking in notepad and wordpad. It's light-weight and simple... much the same reason I use GTalk. And the more I work with html files and ftp, the more troublesome MS Word becomes.
Amazon: If you know me well, you know I love Amazon (easily my favorite website). This past week I've bought: rechargable batteries, dog toys, dog food, cereal, razors and more on Amazon. They all arrived in 24 hours and cost less than buying them at Safeway.
What I'm Not Loving:
Google Analytics: Why can't I receive real-time updates? I'd be willing to pay for that... And why not at least timestamp the last update?!
Yelp: I thought it was just me, but other friends noted similar behaviors - I'm starting to sense that the quality of reviews is dropping rather significantly... troubling trend if true.
Netflix: Feels like it hasn't been updated in ages. The finding experience was once cutting edge but now utterly useless. Try finding upcoming titles within a specific genre (ie Blu Ray) - I dare you.
SideStep: Not a direct comment on SideStep because I love the UI / UE... but as more lower-cost airlines refuse to integreate with the aggregators (Jetblue, Southwest, etc), I find sites like SideStep less useful.
Elance: I love Elance - but I am not loving their new site design. Great example of a redesign that is so radically different that it shocks users accustomized to the old design. This may be a better site design, but it is so inconsistent that I find the site unusable!
This might not come as a surprise since networking sites like LinkedIn and Facebook are becoming popular, effective ways to make business introductions and even hires. But a couple posts on some of my favorite blogs demonstrate that web 2.0 hiring has become precisely that. A few examples:
* Fred Wilson wrote a post saying "We are Looking for an Analyst" and is only accepting "links to your web presence"... fascinating. No resume. No email. No cover letter.
Fred and his firm are saying that your understanding of the web should be evident from your web activity - and that's all they need to know to get started. I would argue that's a great filter for the business they are in.
And if you look at the Union Square Ventures post, nearly 100 people have loaded up their web links (LinkedIn and blog urls are most prevalent). The most interesting submission was a candidate linking to a google search for his own name!
One question about this tactic though - those candidates have all made their interest public... which is problematic for their current jobs / employers and actually exposes their contact information to other companies (not bad for the candidate, but bad for Union Square right?)
* Josh Kopelman wrote a fascinating post about using Facebook Ads to connect with interested candidates for his various start-ups (updated study here). While the ads were more of a field study on Microsoft, Yahoo and Facebook's advertising system - the responses indeed indicate that this was a successful endeavor.
By the way, if you've never advertised on Facebook, spend $20 to promote something off-Facebook - it's a fascinating experience compared to AdWords, Y! and MSN...
* Finally, I posted recently about beRecruited hiring bloggers through Craigslist, Kijiji, and LinkedIn... and how those compare to hiring work through sites like Elance. While my efforts are less savvy (or interesting) than Fred's or Josh's - they have been quite fruitful (albeit quite time consuming).
Exciting news for coffee and internet addicts like me: Starbucks has decided to ditch T-Mobile for AT&T and offer two free hours of usage a day (an extra two hours costs $3.99). Brilliant move for a few reasons:
* I always believed that it was in Starbucks benefit to keep customers in the store * This should increase sales of high priced, high margin foods (in addition to their coffees) * An AT&T deal makes a lot more sense considering Starbuck's ties with Apple and iTunes * The T-Mobile internet service package is lousy (slow, logs you out, never remember passwords, etc)
Now I just need Starbucks to offer those free-refills in cities outside of Seattle...
From the Yahoo camp:
Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO), a leading global Internet company, today said the Yahoo! Board of Directors has carefully reviewed Microsoft's unsolicited proposal with Yahoo!'s management team and financial and legal advisors and has unanimously concluded that the proposal is not in the best interests of Yahoo! and our stockholders.
After careful evaluation, the Board believes that Microsoft's proposal substantially undervalues Yahoo! including our global brand, large worldwide audience, significant recent investments in advertising platforms and future growth prospects, free cash flow and earnings potential, as well as our substantial unconsolidated investments. The Board of Directors is continually evaluating all of its strategic options in the context of the rapidly evolving industry environment and we remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all stockholders.
Goldman, Sachs & Co., Lehman Brothers and Moelis & Company are acting as financial advisors to Yahoo!. Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP is acting as legal advisor to Yahoo!, and Munger Tolles & Olson LLP is acting as counsel to the outside directors of Yahoo!. More from Yahoo.
And then from the Microsoft camp:
Microsoft VP Yusuf Mehdi: We are very committed to this combination. We have a whole set of plans and preparations ready to go to make it work. And we'd like to do that in a cooperative way with Yahoo. No question -- our commitment is clear with this one. (More at Valleywag)
I've written about Blu-Ray's domination over HD-DVD and this latest development is even more telling. When I purchased my Sony PS3 for Blu-Ray movies, I immediately signed up with Netflix as I didn't own a single title. At the time, Netflix offered Blu-Ray and HD-DVD movies - but today, Netflix is announcing that they will only carry Blu-Ray movies going forward.
Stunning move. For a company with such rich user data and popular trends, Netflix must realize that HD-DVD is simply dying (or dead):
With the industry now having picked a winner in the face-off between the two competing high- definition DVD formats, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) , the world's largest online movie rental service, today said that it will move toward stocking high-def DVDs exclusively in the Blu-ray format.
Citing the decision by four of the six major movie studios to publish high-def DVD titles only in the Sony-developed Blu-ray format, Netflix said that as of now it will purchase only Blu-ray discs and will phase out by roughly year's end the alternative high-def format, HD DVD, developed by Toshiba.
Since the first high-definition DVDs came on the market in early 2006, Netflix has stocked both formats. But the company said that in recent months the industry has stated its clear preference for Blu-ray and that it now makes sense for the company to initiate the transition to a single format.
"The prolonged period of competition between two formats has prevented clear communication to the consumer regarding the richness of the high-def experience versus standard definition," said Ted Sarandos, chief content officer for Netflix. "We're now at the point where the industry can pursue the migration to a single format, bring clarity to the consumer and accelerate the adoption of high-def. Going forward, we expect that all of the studios will publish in the Blu-ray format and that the price points of high-def DVD players will come down significantly. These factors could well lead to another decade of disc-based movie watching as the consumer's preferred means."
More also at Silicon Alley Insider and Engadget
On Monday, Yahoo is apparently set to turn down Microsoft's $31/share offer - claiming it "massively undervalues" the company. Yahoo's stock will likely plummet and shareholders will likely be irate, opening up Y! to potential lawsuits. Meanwhile, analysts and bloggers are wondering if this is merely a bold negotiating tactic (after all, Yahoo didn't turn down an acquisition, they turned down a price). Silicon Valley Insider says that the current bid is way off: "The company is unlikely to consider any offer below $40 per share" (Kara Swisher confirms that price). But if Yahoo's desire for a $40/share acquisition is too rich for Microsoft, it is likely too rich for any other potential bidder.
Negotiating tactic or plain rejection, this is a gutsy move by Yahoo.
And if Yahoo indeed rejects the offer, all indications suggest that they will outsource search to Google (a magnificent admission of failure)... a result that frightens me. While I have my doubts about the ability of two monstrous companies to integrate effectively and/or efficiently, I like the concept of having a second player in the search and online advertising market. If done effectively, Yahoo and Microsoft would pose a competitive threat to Google - and competition is always good for consumers (and advertisers, publishers, etc).
My gut says that this story isn't yet over... the discussions are just getting more intense.
